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The Belgium national team, currently leading Group G, may face Senegal in the Round of 16 of the World Cup. This hypothesis, which may seem unlikely, gains credibility when analyzing the system of distribution of the best third-placed teams established by FIFA.
What are the probabilities?
South Korea has a 60% mathematical chance of facing Belgium in the Round of 16, according to calculations. But these probabilities do not take into account the dynamics of the three groups whose outcome is not yet sealed.
The math versus the reality of the field
Currently third in groups K and L, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Croatia seem to be well on their way to qualifying with four points or more. Even better for the Croats, knowing that Ghana, whom they face, and England have four points and that one of them would then be the best third-placed team.
| Team | Points |
|---|---|
| Democratic Republic of Congo | 4 |
| Croatia | 4 |
What to take away from all these scenarios?
That on paper, and on paper only, South Korea remains the most likely opponent for Belgium in the Round of 16 of the World Cup. But also that the Koreans are on the brink of collapse in the race for the best third-placed team.
Last result: Belgium 0-0 Iran (2026-06-21). The Belgium team is currently unbeaten in 5 matches, with 3 wins and 2 draws. Their next match will be on 2026-09-25 against Italy. J. Doku and Z. Debast are currently injured.
